For Clients & Friends of The Gualco Group, Inc.
IN THIS ISSUE – “…the political story of 2021…national in scope…the ultimate exhibition game….”
- Newsom Recall Battle Dominates US Politics
- Poll Shows Governor’s Favorability Rating at Low Ebb
- California Economic Recovery Lags US
- Open & Shut Cases for Pandemic Response: Two Golden States
Capital News & Notes (CN&N) harvests California legislative and regulatory insights from dozens of media and official sources for the past week, tailored to your business and advocacy interests. Please feel free to forward.
READ ALL ABOUT IT!
FOR THE WEEK ENDING MAR. 19, 2021
Newsom Recall Battle Becomes National Political Focus
Politico
Limitless money, a slew of candidates and undivided national attention are about to converge in a battle for California’s future.
An effort to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom is highly likely to qualify after supporters submit their last signatures this week. The ensuing campaign will be a melee free from the constraints that inhibit other statewide contests in California. Donation caps don’t apply. Hundreds of millions of dollars are likely to inundate the state as the full might of California’s Democratic establishment vies with a concerted Republican effort to oust a humbled blue state leader.
“The fact that a recall has no contribution limits means that you can go to your wealthiest supporters, both individuals and organizations, and ask them to dig deeper than they ever have before,” said Democratic strategist Rose Kapolczynski, noting “one inspired individual could give a million dollars or more.”
“There’s nothing like a threat,” she added, “to rally your supporters behind you.”
California politicians are bracing for an enormous, all-consuming campaign for several reasons. Newsom’s supporters are highly motivated to defend him against what they see as an opportunistic partisan attack. Republicans see a national rallying point that can reinvigorate the base after a disappointing 2020. A scant 2021 elections calendar will focus everyone’s attention, as the only other statewide contests are in Virginia and New Jersey.
California political analyst and Sonoma State University professor David McCuan: “This is going to be the political story of 2021 — and it’s going to be national in scope, because the vice president will not be able to take a pass. That means the White House will not be able to take a pass.”
He added. “The ultimate exhibition game.”
WHAT COULD GO WRONG? Well, everything. Newsom has a big advantage going into a recall challenge, given California’s solid Democratic leaning. But it’s a political lifetime between now and November, when this election is likely to be held. Some of the darker possibilities that could derail him:
— Drought, which as the Public Policy Institute’s Jeffrey Mount and Caitrin Chappelle write for CalMatters, could wreak havoc on water reserves and stress environmental management and agriculture. And that could lead to …
— Wildfires brought on by drought and “heat dome” conditions, something Newsom referenced in his recent State of the State address.
— Blackouts, which affected millions last year. Texans recently witnessed the impact that power outages, and resultant widespread anger, can have on politics. It’s the kind of disaster Newsom desperately wants to avoid, along with …
— COVID resurgence could undo the “light at the end of the tunnel” that Newsom has been able to tout in recent weeks.
— Missteps by the candidate, a la L’Affaire French Laundry.
Newsom came out of the box this week hitting the more “extremist” elements of the recall movement — including that RecallGavin2020.com founder Orrin Heatlie once posted a Facebook conversation that appeared to support microchipping undocumented immigrants.
What’s Team Newsom’s strategy there? First, it’s a signal to any Democrats or independents who may be considering getting on board with the recall. As in, “You may not agree with Newsom — but do you want to be associated with that vaccine-protesting, QAnon-believing, Trump-supporting, anti-immigrant crowd?”
It’s also a clear message to deep-pocketed donors, both corporate and individual, that writing a check to the likes of John Cox or Kevin Faulconer may mean being tied at the hip to some of the more unsavory elements of the far fight.
Recall backers are banking on Newsom becomes increasingly unlikeable and appears more and more out-of-touch with average voters — and not just Republicans.
Tom DelBecerro, chair of RescueCalifornia,org, tweeted Wednesday that Newsom is playing a dangerous game in trying to slime all who signed the recall petition as “extremists” — much as Hillary Cllinton did with her infamous “deplorables” comment. The recall campaign said only 64 percent of petition signers were Republicans, while roughly a quarter had no party preference and 9 percent were Democrats.
Recall spokesperson Randy Economy also argued Newsom could alienate a lot of regular Californians who signed on, because they’re angry with high taxes and housing prices, ongoing EDD woes and Newsom’s handling of the pandemic — arguably, frustrations more justifiable than anything on the political fringe.
In nearly a quarter-century of politics, the former San Francisco mayor and lieutenant governor has never lost an election, an enviable record that allows one to dream about the White House. But Republicans and conservative activists see their best opportunity yet to deliver a spectacular takedown of Newsom — in what could become the biggest political upset of the year.
Republicans from around the country — hungering for a cause and a high-profile target in the wake of the 2020 presidential defeat — have eagerly piled on board. The Republican National Committee’s $250,000 seed money has been bulked up with support from conservative stars like Newt Gingrich, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Rep. Devin Nunes and former acting Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell. They’re joined by more moderate Republicans like former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and wealthy businessman John Cox, who have already launched their campaigns.
While Newsom wants to make the recall all about Trump, any serious competitors for his job will want to make it about Newsom — and Newsom alone.
Anne Dunsmore, the campaign manager for recall committee RescueCalifornia.org, countered the governor by emphasizing that one-third of the recall signatories to date are independent or Democratic voters, “and 50 percent are women.” She said Newsom’s firepower will be no match for the more than 20,000 volunteers “tired of being ignored” who have worked on the recall drive and will continue to lead the campaign fight in the months ahead.
But Newsom is a battle-scarred survivor of the San Francisco political arena, and the governor is leaving nothing to chance.
He will have the advantage of marshaling unique weapons: the bully pulpit of the world’s fifth largest economy, which allows Newsom to traverse California with a packed calendar of public events, speaking directly to voters, as he has already done over the past month. He will also rely on an army of elected Democrats, as well as luminaries from business, tech and entertainment fields, to sing his praises.
And he’s going back to the team that got him to Sacramento, several of whom ran Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2020 presidential campaign.
Three partners from the newly rebranded SF-and LA-based political shop, Bearstar Strategies, will take a lead role: Averell “Ace” Smith will be the campaign’s lead strategist; Clegg, who has long shaped media and messaging, will oversee that key role for the candidate; and Juan Rodriguez will be campaign manager after serving in that capacity on Harris’ presidential bid.
Newsom will also rely on veteran Democratic pollster David Binder, who served on both of Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns as well as Senate and House races in more than a dozen states. The governor will turn to Democratic experts in raising money from small contributors: Tim Degaris, who was a senior adviser to Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign, and senior strategist Sydney Hibbs, who raised more than $10 million via digital ads in the 2020 cycle.
The governor is relying on two familiar faces to run his communications side: Nathan Click, his former gubernatorial communications director, and senior strategist Dan Newman.
The Newsom team went on the offensive this week for the first time, launching its first ad trying to tie the recall movement to Trump, Proud Boys and the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Then, the governor himself alleged on MSNBC that one recall principal “wants to put microchips in immigrant aliens,” based on a previous Facebook post made by lead proponent Orrin Heatlie.
Newsom scheduled other national talk show appearances on CNN and “The View,” repeatedly attacking the recall movement as an effort by Trump-aligned Republicans. The governor’s team will repeatedly try to invoke Trump at every turn this year, hoping to capitalize on the former president who is deeply unpopular in California and received a mere 34 percent of the vote in November.
Newsom is “taking it seriously,” said Garry South, who was political adviser to former Gov. Gray Davis when the Democrat was recalled in 2003 and replaced by box office star Arnold Schwarzenegger. “The point has been made to him that Davis did not take the 2003 recall seriously until it was in the later stages, because he didn’t want to deal with it.”
Sacramento insiders say that a pair of major recent additions to Newsom’s inner circle — known as the “Horseshoe” for the shape of the governor’s first floor offices — have made key differences. The addition of Jim DeBoo, a veteran legislative aide and lobbyist, as executive secretary has been credited with helping Newsom move priority stimulus and education measures through the Capitol this year.
And Dee Dee Myers, the former White House press secretary for President Bill Clinton, has taken the reins on communication and contacts with the state’s business community as Newsom’s top business and economic adviser. She said Newsom’s mood heading into the challenge is “optimistic. He really is focused on doing the job right,” she said.
“His focus is getting California back, getting the economy going again, getting business back on their feet, getting kids in school and getting vaccines in arms,” Myers said. “That’s going to be his job — and everything else is background noise.”
Republicans will attempt to make this election all about Newsom’s record and California’s struggles under his leadership. They can point to the state’s blackouts last summer, as well as smoke-filled skies and wildfires that again blanketed large swaths of the state. California has struggled with unemployment during pandemic-related business closures ordered by Newsom, while churchgoers were unable to worship inside in most counties until the Supreme Court stepped in.
And more than a year into the pandemic, the state ranks dead last on classroom reopening, according to school tracker Burbio. While Democratic-dominated West Coast states have been among the nation’s slowest to bring students back, governors in Oregon and Washington this month issued executive orders mandating that schools reopen. Newsom declined to go that route, preferring instead to dangle $2 billion in incentives as part of a compromise with teachers unions — a move that has still left many students at home.
But the governor’s internal measures are largely in line with public polls that show Newsom’s approval rating, while down from highs last year, are still above water, according to two strategists familiar with his polling. As more Californians get vaccinated and life begins to edge back to normal, it is likely that the electorate’s mood will improve by the time an election is held later this year.
“I think the economy here will be in good shape, and I think the virus will be contained, if not crushed,” said Bob Shrum, a longtime political strategist who served on multiple Democratic presidential campaigns. “And people will say, ‘Well, maybe Newsom did a pretty good job, after all.'”
Sean Walsh, who served as deputy chief of staff to Gov. Pete Wilson and directed the Office of Planning and Research for Schwarzenegger, predicts a bonanza of spending by labor unions and other Democratic interests on Newsom’s behalf could ultimately tilt the Capitol landscape even further to the left, he said.
With Newsom relying on “public employee unions to bail him out” in a recall election, Walsh said, “that will just further solidify those ties and probably make Newsom, from a public policy perspective, go even more leftward.”
Walsh added that one advantage for Newsom is that California’s business community is unlikely to spend heavily against him.
“Even as angry as they are at Gavin Newsom,” he said, “it’s not in their nature to want to get involved … They’re just very risk averse.”
The state’s electorate and its representatives are more Democratic than when Davis was recalled in 2003. And as of now, there is no wealthy, charismatic superstar waiting to take Newsom’s place.
“History actually doesn’t always repeat itself, and these are very different circumstances,” Shrum said. “I just don’t see how this succeeds.”
Poll Shows Governor’s Favorability Rating at Low Ebb
The Hill
A new poll by Nextstar Media Group’s six California TV stations and Emerson College, released Monday, appeared to show Newsom is underwater on favorability — he governor’s approval rating falling to 42%, with 40% disapproving and 18% unsure.
When asked about the effort to recall Newsom, 42% said they would vote to keep him, 38% said they would vote to recall, and 14% were undecided. A small portion, 6%, said they would not vote in a recall.
The poll handed Republicans the opportunity to refute Democrats’ claims that the recall is “extremist.” Tom DelBeccaro, who chairs Rescue California, said the poll proves a majority of voters “are ready to move on from Gavin Newsom. Now, the question is only what plausible candidate will take his place.”
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/543209-californians-split-over-newsom-recall-poll
California Economic Recovery Lags US
CalMatters & Economic Development Dept.
California’s economic recovery is significantly lagging the nation’s, with the Golden State notching a 9% unemployment rate in January compared to 6.5% nationally, according to figures released by the state Employment Development Dept.
Though that marks a slight improvement from California’s recalculated December unemployment rate of 9.3%, the numbers mask a more complex reality: The unemployment roster shrunk in part because 36,500 Californians dropped out of the job market altogether. California lost around 70,000 jobs from December to January — and a staggering 768,100 jobs since January 2020.
Taner Osman of Beacon Economics in Los Angeles: “While we expect a strong recovery in 2021, it would take an unprecedented hiring surge to regain the lost jobs, as well as the jobs we would have added during normal times.”
Loosened reopening restrictions and $150 billion in federal stimulus should help California recover. Still, the Golden State saw a 19% jump in initial unemployment claims for the week of March 6, compared to a 6.2% decline nationally, according to the US Dept. of Labor. The influx of claims is just another hurdle for EDD. Not only is the department already grappling with a backlog of more than 1 million claims, but it’s also facing a massive surge in new applications. The department is also processing an extension of federal benefits.
Employment Development Dept. report:
https://www.edd.ca.gov/Newsroom/unemployment-january-2021.htm?mc_cid=a75544d2f3&mc_eid=2833f18cca
Open & Closed Cases for Pandemic Response: 2 Golden States
Associated Press
Nearly a year after California Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered the nation’s first statewide shutdown because of the coronavirus, masks remain mandated, indoor dining and other activities are significantly limited.
By contrast, Florida has no statewide restrictions. Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has prohibited municipalities from fining people who refuse to wear masks. And Disney World has been open since July.
Despite their differing approaches, California and Florida have experienced almost identical outcomes in COVID-19 case rates.
How have two states that took such divergent tacks arrived at similar points?
“This is going to be an important question that we have to ask ourselves: What public health measures actually were the most impactful, and which ones had negligible effect or backfired by driving behavior underground?” said Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
Though research has found that mask mandates and limits on group activities such as indoor dining can help slow the spread of the coronavirus, states with greater government-imposed restrictions have not always fared better than those without them.
California and Florida both have a COVID-19 case rate of around 8,900 per 100,000 residents since the pandemic began, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. And both rank in the middle among states for COVID-19 death rates — Florida was 27th as of Friday; California was 28th.
Connecticut and South Dakota are another example. Both rank among the 10 worst states for COVID-19 death rates. Yet Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont, a Democrat, imposed numerous statewide restrictions over the past year after an early surge in deaths, while South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, a Republican, issued no mandates as virus deaths soared in the fall.
While Lamont ordered quarantines for certain out-of-state visitors, Noem launched a $5 million tourism advertising campaign and welcomed people to a massive motorcycle rally, which some health experts said spread the coronavirus throughout the Midwest.
Both contend their approach is the best.
“Even in a pandemic, public health policy needs to take into account people’s economic and social well-being,” Noem said during a recent conservative convention.
Lamont recently announced that he is lifting capacity limits at retail stores, restaurants and other facilities, effective March 19. But bars that don’t serve food will remain closed and a mask mandate will continue.
“This is not Texas. This is not Mississippi. This is Connecticut,” Lamont said, referencing other states that recently lifted mask mandates.
“We’re finding what works is wearing the mask, social distancing and vaccinations,” he said.
As new COVID-19 cases decrease nationally, governors in more than half the states have taken actions during past two weeks to end or ease coronavirus restrictions, according to an Associated Press tally. Some capacity limits ended Friday in Maryland and Oklahoma. Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York and Wyoming are relaxing restrictions in the coming week.
In almost all cases, governors have lauded their approach to the pandemic, while critics have accused them of being too stringent or too lax.
California’s slow reopening is expected to gain steam in April. But Republicans in California are helping organize a recall effort against Newsom that has drawn nearly 2 million petition signatures from people frustrated over his long-lasting limits on businesses, church gatherings and people’s activities. He also faces intense pressure over public school closures and the glacial pace of getting them reopened.
Newson asserted that California has been a leader in combating the virus while delivering his State of the State address this past week from Dodger Stadium, where the empty seats roughly equaled the state’s 55,000 COVID-19 deaths.
“From the earliest days of this pandemic, California trusted in science and data, and we met the moment,” Newsom said.
He added: “We’re not going to change course just because of a few naysayers and doomsdayers.”
In his own State of the State address, DeSantis asserted that Florida was in better shape than others because its businesses and schools are open. Florida’s unemployment rate ranked below the national average, and significantly lower than California’s, at the start of this year.
“While so many other states kept locking people down over these many months, Florida lifted people up,” DeSantis said.
Determining which approach is best is more complicated than just looking at statewide policies and overall case rates.
Like Florida, Missouri had no statewide mask mandate, ended business restrictions last June and has a cumulative COVID-19 death rate similar to California’s. In the absence of statewide orders, many of the largest cities in Florida and Missouri imposed their own mask requirements and business restrictions. In Missouri, that meant about half the population was still subject to mask mandates.
Republican Gov. Mike Parson has touted “a balanced approach” to the pandemic that left many public health decisions up to local officials and allowed Missouri’s economy “to come back strong.” New COVID-19 cases and unemployment are both low, and consumer spending has returned to pre-pandemic levels, Parson said this past week.
State health director Randall Williams believes residents heeded Parson’s call to voluntarily mask up when Missouri’s coronavirus cases spiked last fall to some of the highest levels nationally.
Public health experts said individual choices could help explain the similar outcomes among some states with loose or strict orders from the governor.
Some people voluntarily were “being more vigilant in states where the guidelines are more relaxed,” said Thomas Tsai, an assistant professor at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. Yet in states with more government mandates, “people generally in public were wearing masks and following the guidelines, but in private they were letting down their guard and less vigilant,” he said.
Imposing strict measures, like forbidding families from visiting grandparents and friends from gathering, is like taking an abstinence-only approach to combating drug use and sexually transmitted disease, said Adalja, of Johns Hopkins University.
Some will comply. But other “people are going to do those activities, anyway,” he said.