What if they called an election and nobody came? That seems to be the story this November. Turnout for the June primary, just 25 percent of registered voters, was the lowest in history. The November turnout will probably not surpass 45 percent, also an historic low.
Many analysts assume that this lower turnout bodes well for Republicans but in fact the significant drop-off between this year’s primary and the comparable non-presidential year primary in 2010 seems to have been among Republican voters.
In the 2010 primary, 45 percent of registered Republicans cast a ballot for governor compared to 32 percent of registered Democrats. In raw totals, the GOP primary vote nearly equaled the Democratic vote. This year only 33 percent of Republicans cast a ballot for governor compared to 31 percent of Democrats. Interestingly, the Democratic raw vote total in 2014, 2,392,000 votes cast for governor, was nearly equal to the Democratic votes cast in vote 2010, 2,395,000. But the Republican vote fell from 2,377,000 in 2010 to just 1,684,000 in 2014, a drop of 693,000.
So the historically low 2014 primary turnout was nearly all Republicans not voting. This is exacerbated by the continued collapse of Republican registration, since October 2010, GOP registration has fallen from 31 percent to just 28.2 percent today, and will probably fall more when the final registration figures are released in mid-October. In raw terms, there are 40,000 more Democrats today than there were in October 2010, but 385,000 fewer Republicans.
So with declining registration and Republican stay at home voters, the results for the GOP in November could be disastrous. If their own voters do not come out they lose not only the statewide offices by huge margins, but that will carry down ballot candidates to defeat.
http://www.foxandhoundsdaily.com/2014/10/non-election-election/