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IN THIS ISSUE – “As Demoralized Dems Search for Heroes, Newsom Offers Allure of a Proven Winner” New York Times
- Is Newsom – Mr. “Subzero Interest” – Positioning for a POTUS Run?
- Handy Cheat Sheet on Revolving-Door Legislature
- Get Ready for Tunnel Vision…Regulators to Release Delta Conveyance Study
Capital News & Notes (CN&N) harvests California policy, legislative and regulatory insights from dozens of media and official sources for the past week. Please feel free to forward this unique client service.
FOR THE WEEK ENDING JUNE 24, 2022
Is Newsom – Mr. “Subzero Interest” – Positioning for a POTUS Run?
“You Bet,” Says the New York Times…
Gavin Newsom keeps picking exactly the kinds of fights that presidential candidates like to pick.
He joined Donald Trump’s social media network — to rebut “Republican lies,” he said. He posted another “truth” on the former president’s site on Monday, using the platform to promote what he cast as the superior economic performance of blue states.
For months, Newsom, the 54-year-old governor of California, has been taking swipes at red-state governors known to have presidential ambitions.
He has ripped unnamed fellow Democrats, too: In May, after Politico published a draft Supreme Court decision that would strike down Roe v. Wade, Newsom groused that Republican cultural warriors were winning on issues like abortion and L.G.B.T.Q. rights with no vigorous response from the left.
“Where the hell’s my party?” Newsom said. “Where’s the counteroffensive?”
He is always careful to explain that he means no disrespect to the gerontocratic official leaders of the Democratic Party: President Biden (who is 79), Speaker Nancy Pelosi (82) and Senator Chuck Schumer (71), the majority leader.
And though Newsom has declared that he has “subzero interest” in running for president — and aides insist that he is deadly earnest about that — he appears to be not only positioning himself as a point man for blue states but also laying the groundwork for a future White House run.
During an interview with my colleagues Shawn Hubler and Jill Cowan in March, Newsom said he felt a “real sense of obligation” to speak out.
“There’s something really profound happening at the state level, and I just think we’ve been sleepwalking,” he said.
As demoralized Democrats search for political heroes, Newsom offers the allure of a proven winner. He crushed a recall attempt last year and emerged stronger. In California’s recent primary election, he finished ahead of his closest opponent by nearly 40 percentage points.
“On election night, Newsom will be the winner of the largest state and by the largest margin,” Mike Madrid, a former Republican political consultant based in Sacramento, predicted about November. “There’s no way he cannot be part of a national conversation.”
Last week’s editorial choices by The Atlantic, the proverbial in-flight magazine of Air Force One, were especially striking: Ron Brownstein, the influential Los Angeles-based pundit and CNN analyst, gushed over Newsom’s leadership in one breath while Mark Leibovich, a former New York Times writer, raised doubts about Biden’s re-election chances in another.
During the Trump presidency, as blue-state governors battled with the White House over pandemic restrictions and immigration, Newsom often seemed to be competing with Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York for influence. But Cuomo resigned in 2021 amid allegations of sexual misconduct, leaving Newsom as the nation’s most powerful Democratic governor.
“He’s filling a vacuum,” said David Atkins, a Democratic National Committee member from California. “Newsom really understands the current political moment and what the modern Republican Party has become.”
The surge of interest in Newsom comes as Democrats begin to openly debate whether Biden, given his age (which is high) and his approval ratings (which are low), ought to bear the party’s standard again in 2024.
Most such conversations begin with two assumptions: that Vice President Kamala Harris is Biden’s natural heir, and that she would face many Democratic challengers should he bow out.
On Saturday, Gov. J.B. Pritzker of Illinois was the keynote speakerat a dinner for the Democratic Party of New Hampshire, prompting speculation that his motives go beyond the stated goal of helping fellow governors who support abortion rights.
Newsom’s rise coincides with a series of stinging defeats for prized progressive policies and goals. The Supreme Court appears poised to reverse Roe, while Republican-led states like Florida and Texas are enacting new restrictions on what teachers in public schools may say about gender and sexual identity. In Congress, Republicans have foiled Democrats’ attempts to pass legislation aimed at protecting voting rights, slowing the pace of climate change and a host of other priorities.
“If the president were not to run, it’s hard to imagine that Newsom would not be sorely tempted to enter the race,” said David Axelrod, a longtime Democratic strategist and political adviser to former President Barack Obama.
“Newsom is young and politically muscular,” Axelrod added, “which may be just what the market will be seeking post-Biden.”
But the “People’s Republic of California” can be a dual-edged blade for Democrats with national aspirations.
With a population of nearly 40 million people, hordes of wealthy liberal donors and an economy larger than India’s, the state is an appealing platform for a presidential run.
All three of the country’s Californian presidents — Herbert Hoover, Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan — were Republicans, however. No Democrat from California has ever been elected to the Oval Office.
“They’ve never really been to college on how to win a Michigan or a Wisconsin,” said Mike Murphy, a Republican political consultant based in Los Angeles. “So their instincts tend to be wrong.”
Aides to Newsom say there’s no hidden agenda here: He just wants to prove to Democrats across the country that taking on Republicans, forcefully and directly, is a winning political move. And in a state as diverse and geographically complex as California, he can reach more Democratic voters by popping off on “Maddow” than by appearing on, say, local television.
Newsom’s political advisers have studied the way Scott Walker handled a similar drive to recall him as governor of Wisconsin in 2012. Walker survived with 53 percent of the vote, setting him up with a national following and donor base on the right.
But Walker’s ensuing bid for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination flamed out quickly. Broke and polling badly, he dropped out in September 2015, months before the Iowa caucuses.
For Newsom, gleaning insights from Walker’s recall was simply a matter of political survival, aides say. And today, by defining Republicans as capricious and cruel, he is merely taking full advantage of his platform.
“He’s expressing general concern about what’s happening and offering up California as an alternative vision,” said Anthony York, a spokesman for the governor. “The stuff that’s going on in other states across the country is dangerous.”
Complicating Newsom’s calculations, Democratic insiders say, is his relationship with Harris, who served as California’s attorney general before her successful run for Senate in 2016.
Taking on Harris would put Newsom at odds with the only Black woman ever to serve as vice president. Whatever private doubts many top Democrats voice about her viability in a hypothetical contest with Trump, she would be a formidable opponent in early presidential primary states like South Carolina, where Black voters powered Biden to victory in 2020. Most of the highly speculative, early polls presuming a Biden-free Democratic primary in 2024place Harris atop the heap.
Newsom and Harris have also shared the same political consulting firm and swim in many of the same elite waters. Megadonors and other power brokers in California are likely to blanch at the prospect of an open conflict between the state’s two most powerful Democrats.
“I can’t imagine a world in which they would run against each other,” said Michael Kapp, a Los Angeles County official and D.N.C. member.
Newsom might be better off running in a year that looks more auspicious for Democrats, such as 2028. At that point, the governor would be 61 years old and amply seasoned after two terms in office, though he would need to amass and smartly package a record that could appeal to primary and general election voters alike, Murphy cautioned.
For now, in taking on Ron DeSantis and Greg Abbott, his ambitious counterparts in Florida and Texas, Newsom is stoking cross-country rivalries that could benefit all three governors. He has mentioned DeSantis dozens of times over the last few years, while jabbing Abbott somewhat less often. Most recently, Newsom criticized DeSantis on Twitter for refusing to assist with the distribution of federally supplied vaccines for children.
“He tweets all the time about my boss,” said Christina Pushaw, a spokeswoman for DeSantis who spars frequently with the California governor online. “Newsom seems to be trying to start some kind of feud.”
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Handy Cheat Sheet on Revolving-Door Legislature
Politico’s California Playbook
A handy cheat sheet to who is leaving the Legislature and who is poised to replace them. Last week’s primaries helped clarify the latter.
AD-10 (Jim Cooper): It will be either Democratic Elk Grove City Council member Stephanie Nguyen or Democratic Sacramento City Council member Eric Guerra, if Guerra’s grip on second place holds, after an expensive primary.
AD-12 (Marc Levine): It will be either Democratic Coastal Commissioner Sara Aminzadeh or Democratic Marin Supervisor Damon Connolly representing the seat Levine left to challenge Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara.
AD-20 (Bill Quirk): It will be either Democrat and Alameda labor official Liz Ortega or Democratic Dublin Council Member Shawn Kumagai in a premier labor-versus-business matchup.
AD-21 (Kevin Mullin): Democratic San Mateo Council Member Diane Papan was poised to claim this safe blue seat and maintain its dynastic nature by being the sole Democrat to advance. But Democratic Redwood City Council member Giselle Hale vaulted into the second spot.
AD-27 (Adam Gray): It will be either Democratic Fresno City Council Member Esmeralda Soria or Republican Merced Sheriff Mark Pazin representing a seat whose double-digit Democratic voter advantage belies its competitiveness.
AD-28 (Mark Stone): Either Democratic former Santa Cruz County Clerk Gail Pellerin, who secured Stone’s endorsement, or Democratic Los Gatos Mayor Rob Rennie will take this coastal seat.
AD-30 (Jordan Cunningham): Morro Bay City Council Member Dawn Addis will almost certainly be the next Assembly member as the only Democrat in the runoff.
AD-35 (Rudy Salas): It will be either Democratic doctor Jasmeet Bains or Democrat Kern County Supervisor Leticia Perez after a primary that saw substantial medical sector spending.
AD-47 (Chad Mayes): Democratic former Palm Springs Mayor Christy Holstege will match up with Republican Greg Wallis, a longtime Mayes staffer, for this competitive (D+6) seat as the Legislature’s only independent departs.
AD-51 (Richard Bloom): Democrat Rick Chavez Zbur is the prohibitive favorite to replace Bloom. The former Equality California chief far outpolled second-place Democrat Louis Abramson in the primary.
AD-60 (Jose Medina): Democrat Riverside County Board of Education Member Corey Jackson is set to take this seat as he’s on course to face a Republican in November.
AD-63 (Kelly Seyarto): Republican attorney Bill Essayli is looking to defend an R+4 seat against Democratic water board member Fauzia Rizvi.
AD-64 (Cristina Garcia): Downey Mayor Blanca Pacheco will likely replace Garcia as Pacheco is the sole Democrat to secure a spot in the general.
AD-68 (Tom Daly): In another race where there will be a sole Democrat on the ballot in November, Daly’s district director, Avelino Valencia, is poised to claim his boss’s job.
AD-69 (Patrick O’Donnell): Democrat Josh Lowenthal – the son of retiring Rep. Alan Lowenthal – or Democratic Long Beach City Councilmember Al Austin will represent this Long Beach-anchored seat.
AD-70 (Janet Nguyen): Democratic Garden Grove Mayor Pro Tem Diedre Thu-Ha Nguyen, one of the party’s top 2020 prospects, will match up with Republican Westminster Mayor Tri Ta in a tight (D+3) district where Republicans have claimed about 60 percent of primary votes.
SD-4 (Andreas Borgeas): Republicans are reeling from the reality that either Democratic school administrator Marie Alvarado-Gil or Democratic labor official Tim Robertson will take over what looked to be a safe Republican seat.
SD-6 (Jim Nielsen): One of Sacramento’s most experienced Republican legislators will be succeeded by either Democratic former San Juan Unified School District member Paula Villescaz or Republican former Assembly member Roger Niello in a basically even district (R+0.5).
SD-8 (Richard Pan): This and SD-10 (see below) host two expensive multi-Dem seats. Sacramento’s next senator will be either Democratic Sacramento City Council Member Angelique Ashby or Democratic former Assembly member and Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones.
SD-10 (Bob Wieckowski): It’ll be either Fremont Mayor Lily Mei or Hayward City Council Member Aisha Wahab in another key moderate versus liberal matchup.
SD-20 (Bob Hertzberg): Democratic businessman Daniel Hertzberg’s quest to succeed his father will run through Democratic nonprofit executive Caroline Menjivar after she leapfrogged a Republican into the second spot.
SD-28 (Sydney Kamlager): With Kamlager bound for the House, she’ll be succeeded by one of two Democrats: UCLA Labor Center project director Lola Smallwood-Cuevas or attorney Cheryl C. Turner.
Get Ready for Tunnel Vision…Regulators to Release Delta Conveyance Study
CalMatters
California water officials are poised to release the first environmental review of a controversial project to replumb the Delta — a plan in the works for decades that has alternately been called a water grab or a critical update to shore up state supplies.
Known as the Delta Conveyance Project, a tunnel supported by Gov. Gavin Newsom would take water from the Sacramento River and bypass the vast Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, funneling the flows directly to pumps in the south Delta or straight to Bethany Reservoir at the northern end of the California Aqueduct.
The tunnel proposal, still in the early stages of environmental review, is the latest, scaled-down iteration of the contentious twin tunnels project, which Newsom scrapped in 2019 in favor of a single tunnel.
The goal, according to state officials, is to make the State Water Project, which provides water to 27 million Californians and 750,000 acres of farmland, less vulnerable to rising seas, earthquakes and the extreme droughts and precipitation shifts of climate change. The massive system transports water through the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta to agencies and irrigation districts in the San Joaquin Valley, Southern California, the Central Coast and the Bay Area.
What would a Delta tunnel mean for California? “Ask me that after the EIR (environmental impact review) comes out,” said Greg Gartrell, former water manager with Contra Costa Water District and a consulting engineer. “It all depends on what the rules are for how it gets operated.”
The tunnel, stretching for about 44 miles, would allow the state Department of Water Resources to pipe additional water south to reservoirs, farms and cities. State officials say it would be especially beneficial during storms, when endangered species protections and other restrictions might limit pumping from the existing facility farther south.
Had the tunnel existed during the storms of late 2021, the state agency calculates that the tunnel would have sent 236,000 more acre-feet of water to storage — enough to supply 2.5 million people for a year.
Efforts to funnel water around the Delta have been in the works for decades under various names, dating back to the peripheral canal first proposed in the 1960s and rejected by California voters in the 1980s.
The costly proposals have been controversial ever since, with critics concerned that bypassing the Delta could worsen salinity and stagnation, and that years of construction could drive residents and tourists from the region.
The prolonged efforts to build tunnels could be called “the epicenter of the California water wars for almost 60 years,” Gartrell said.
The tunnel would be no quick fix: It would have to clear a gauntlet of permits, hearings and environmental review, including from federal agencies.
The first step is a draft environmental impact review expected later this summer, which would consider all of the alternatives, addressing the amounts of water the three routes would divert from the Delta and how they would affect water quality, the ecosystem and fish.
Next steps include public comment, finalizing the preferred route and deciding whether to move forward. In all, obtaining various permits and designing the prject could take six to eight years, and construction could add another another twelve years, state officials said.
The state would issue bonds, but public water providers that ultimately sign on to receive the tunnel’s water will be on the hook for paying back the costs, estimated at just under $16 billion in 2020 dollars. That number is likely to climb, given inflation and rising construction costs.
“It’s not like we’re going to turn dirt tomorrow, and we’re gonna set this thing up, and we’re gonna start moving water next year. It’s a long way off,” said Tony Meyers, executive director of the state’s Delta Conveyance Office.”So there’s a lot of time to amend and adjust.”
Much more: