Voting by mail is now the rage in California; in the June primary more than 69 percent of the ballots were cast before Election Day. It is very possible that a majority of votes this November will be by mail. And thanks to Paul Mitchell and Political Data Inc, for the first time we can watch the return of absentee ballots on a daily basis.
Political Data, which maintains a complete file of every voter in the state, has put together a series of on-line charts that gives the daily return of absentee ballots, and provides their party breakdown as well as age and race. Not surprisingly, the early electorate shows a Republican bias; that is always the case; Republican absentee voters get their ballots in early.
But the Political Data charts go a step farther; they show the final vote in California and by district, so it is possible to project out the likely make up of the final electorate in a district by comparing the current absentee turnout with the final vote. And for the first time, this allows analysis a week before Election Day of the likely results when all the votes are counted. As of this weekend, more than 1.3 million ballots had been returned to the counties and processed into the Political Data database.
So what are we seeing? Let’s look at areas with hot legislative and congressional races.
First takeaway: Democrats May Well Regain a Two Thirds Margin in the State Senate. This is because the early returns suggest Democrat Luis Chavez could defeat GOP Sen. Andy Vidak in the 14th Senate district in the Central Valley. Democrats have run a huge registration drive here to boost their numbers and are running a major vote by mail effort. As of right now, Democrats are getting 53 percent of the early votes. In 2012, Democrats only got 48 percent of early votes, and in 2010, only 47 percent. Interestingly, the Latino turnout in this district in the early voting is 41 percent, well above their numbers in 2010 and 2012. So much for the Republican siren song that Latinos will not vote in this election.
The second take away: Democrats May Well Lose their Two Thirds Majority in the Assembly. Democratic prospects for picking up the Ventura Assembly seat that GOP Assemblyman Jeff Gorell is vacating to run for Congress look very promising; Democratic turnout is running well ahead of 2010 and even ahead of 2012, a very good Democratic year. Republicans need a big edge in early voting to withstand Election Day’s Democratic bias. They are not getting it.
One sparrow does not a summer make, and these are very early results. But for the first time we can actually look at them on a daily basis, and compare them with past elections. Overall the early results look better for Republicans than 2012 when they lost almost all the close races, but not as good as 2010 when the Republicans were in better shape in California.
http://www.foxandhoundsdaily.com/2014/10/whos-winning-whos-losing-week-election/