The economic boom is leaving behind workers in California who lost their jobs in manufacturing and construction during the Great Recession and won’t ever regain those vanished positions, according to an unsettling analysis in the UCLA Anderson Forecast, a quarterly assessment of the economy in California.
The forecast also predicted improvements in the California jobless rate and the annual pace of employment growth and income growth.
The California jobless rate will average about 7.1 percent this year and about 6.6 percent in 2015. Employment growth will average 1.8 percent in 2014 and improve to 2.1 percent in 2015. Real personal income, adjusted for inflation, is expected to grow an average of 3.1 percent this year in California and improve to 4.5 percent in 2015.
Despite the picture of an improving economy, the benefits are being spread unevenly, the forecast warned.
“A lot of workers are being left out in the cold,” said Jerry Nickelsburg, a senior economist. “Many jobs in construction and manufacturing are not coming back..”
“The permanent loss of these jobs means that the squeeze will continue for the middle class,” said Russell Hancock, president of Joint Venture Silicon Valley. “We will continue to have a bifurcated economy. These are the kinds of conditions that lead to social instability and civic unrest.”