It is a testament to the dormant state of California’s once mighty Republican dynasty that the only GOP candidate either party gives a shot at capturing Barbara Boxer’s Senate seat upon her retirement next year is the one who is resolutely refusing to run: former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
Last week, Rice topped a statewide Field Poll of 18 potential candidates, drawing the support of 49 percent of likely voters, compared with 46 percent for state Attorney General Kamala Harris, the only declared Democratic candidate so far. That sparked a fresh flurry of speculation about a Rice candidacy — and the latest emphatic denial from her chief of staff that she has any interest in the race.
The yearning for Rice, the former provost of Stanford University, is rooted in demographics: An African-American with a centrist reputation and inclusive manner, Rice could hold onto the California GOP’s base of fiscal conservatives while drawing in more supporters from the state’s fast-growing minority groups.
“The trouble is the bench,” said Jack Pitney, a professor at Claremont McKenna College and a former Republican congressional aide. “Republicans don’t have any statewide elected officials, and as far as House members go, now that the GOP is in the majority in Washington, they have a lot more to lose.”
For example, Rep. Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield is in line to be speaker of the House.
There are a few rising stars in the state party. Last fall, Ashley Swearengin, the moderate mayor of Fresno, ran a strong campaign for state controller, drawing the endorsement of the Los Angeles Times, before ultimately losing to Democrat Betty Yee of San Francisco.
But the current chairman of the California GOP, former state Sen. Jim Brulte, one of Sacramento’s wiliest old hands, has focused his efforts on recruiting and electing candidates at the local level. Those efforts have borne fruit: Fifty percent of county supervisors throughout the state are now Republican, as are a plurality of mayors and city council members.
“That strategy makes sense,” said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a professor and political analyst at the University of Southern California. “Where are the Republicans going to amass the kind of money and name recognition and organization needed for a statewide race from a decimated party? The only possible person is Condi, and I’m here to tell you that’s not a slam-dunk, either, and one of the reasons she probably continues to say no is because she knows she’d be beaten up for her work for George W. Bush” in a state that’s become deep blue in presidential politics, in a presidential election year, to boot.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/02/condoleezza-rice-california-2016-senate-election-115427.html