The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced yesterday the probability of El Niño conditions being present through the end of 2015 is now 80 percent — up from 60 percent last month and 50 percent the month before.
Ocean temperatures at the equator near South America are even warmer now than at this time last year, researchers say, and they appear to be triggering the kinds of early changes in the atmosphere that can lead to strong El Niño conditions that historically have been linked with a higher likelihood of wet winters for California.
Does this mean the drought is going to end by next Christmas? Time to break out the galoshes?
It’s too early to tell, experts say.
“We’re seeing this evolve in a way that could increase the odds that next winter would be wet,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director for NOAA’s climate prediction center in College Park, Maryland. “Things are trending the right direction,” he said. “But no promises. Winter is still a long way off. What we’re seeing so far is good news. But don’t stop conserving water yet.”